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I also know SPXU that I used with my trading signal at the time. It is a leveraged alternative to shorting SPY or buying SH. You have to support the leverage effect… Not a huge fan of options either, like all insurance, as you point out.
to bounce back:
– markets/analyses: no worries about quality, it’s not because I analyze a stock that it’s necessarily a buy recommendation. It can even be an example not to follow (like the recent GM analysis) or a sell recommendation
– forum: do not allow comments on articles and divert the discussion to the forum: no, we must leave this possibility which is appreciated. On the other hand, let’s see if I can possibly automate a republication of articles in a part of the forum…
I will be brief
1) yes you need a margin account at IB to short
2) I do everything “manually” or rather on Excel
3) trading auto signal: partly based on minis/maxis. But I don't use it anymore for various reasons.
4) UBS: as you say, the problem remains the same… it doesn’t change in such a short time
A++
So this excellent sentence was from you! Very last participant 😉
Yes, of course you can open topics. That's what it's for.
The ETF for the S&P is the traditional SPY, the most used in the world. It costs next to nothing and is hyper liquid. If you can't short it, then buy SH.
You are right. Trend following is TA and as you know I am not a fan of the latter. It is indeed a good way to lose money.
However, several renowned authors, who in any case cannot be classified among the gurus of TA, have proven that trend strategies can work. I am thinking for example of Jeremy Siegel in his bible Investing in Long-Term Stocks (https://www.dividendes.ch/lectures/), James O'Shaughnessy in What works on Wall Street (excellent work) and the various research of Mebane Faber. See also my series on diversification (https://www.dividendes.ch/2017/08/comment-diversifier-son-portefeuille-pour-se-prevenir-des-risques-de-marche-120/).
I use these trend-following in my asset allocation primarily to know if we can buy or if it is better to wait for a more favorable moment because the market is still bearish. This certainly does not allow you to work miracles in terms of performance, but it helps to reduce the volatility of the portfolio, especially if it is associated with a capital protection strategy (see tutorial).
More specifically to your question, I also have a small line of alternative strategies in this allocation that actually goes a little further by shorting the market, but only when it is both very expensive and in a bearish phase. I consider this position more as a kind of hedge than speculation.
Mebane Faber uses simple 200-day MAs for all assets. After several backtests, I had the best results with simple MAs with durations that vary somewhat depending on the assets. In addition, I convert the assets to CHF before calculating the MAs. For SPY I therefore use 224 days.
For UBS, please read my analysis, everything is said there. (under articles/analyses or via the search bar)
For screeners, this would probably deserve an article… You just have to give me a little time 😉
Well, it's good that you're asking yourself 3000 questions because here, between the blog and the forum, since 2010, you must find around 10,000 answers 🙂
For example for UBS, look at my latest analysis: https://www.dividendes.ch/2018/10/analyse-dubs-ubsgvtx/
For the portfolio titles, look here: https://www.dividendes.ch/2019/06/performance-du-1er-semestre-2019/
You will still find some Swiss there, some Swiss but no more US. Too expensive!
At the time I had quite a few of these:
https://www.dividendes.ch/super-aristocrates-40-internationaux/
Why do you say that the stocks I mention are expensive?
If the stock price falls, the dividend is not necessarily cut. In fact, it is rather when profits and their representatives (dividends) fall that the price falls. If the price falls because the market panics, but the fundamentals are good, then dividends continue to be paid and even increased. This has happened very often in the past and it offers extraordinary opportunities.
The question of whether or not to sell a stock that sees its value drop is not easy to answer. In general it is no, but there may be situations that justify it. So I invite you to read this article:
I also invite you to go through the tutorial in the menu.
Here I have exploded the polls on the homepage
I have had UBS for a very long time for reasons that have nothing to do with my usual investment criteria. It's an old story... Let's just say that I wouldn't recommend buying it as such. On the other hand, more generally, I quite like the financial sector since it crashed in 2008. It's stagnating, it's not expensive and offers good dividends. Sooner or later, when rates go up (it's already the case in the US), things will get better. For example, I like TD, VATN and on the insurance side SLHN.
Nestlé and Novartis, nothing to complain about, except the price.
I know the US market very well, but same problem...much too expensive. I left it in 2017. Before that was almost all I had.
No, not at all. I don't know where all these people come from (hey, that gives me an idea for a survey). I know that there are a few Valaisans indeed, there are also some from Geneva and Vaud. I don't know about the other cantons.
The SMI is made up of some very good values but on the other hand it is really too expensive overall at present.
For valuation ratios I advise you to read my series of articles that talk about it (see tutorial menu). However, this does not concern the market but the shares. So I do not discuss the PE Schiller ratio.
Otherwise you can also read this:
Research_2016-01_Predicting_Stock_Market_Returns_Shiller_CAPE_Keimling-1
For screeners I use those of financial times, free, but access to company data is paid. I also use the one from quant investing, paid.
Indeed I tested this Swiss IBAN thing the other day and it works. Thanks for the tip. Super fast too.
Concerning the valuation of indices, there are three indicators that work well. At the international level, the PE Schiller ratio and the P/B ratio. In the USA, there is also the 'Buffett ratio', i.e. the ratio between American indices and GNP. Most indices are indeed expensive at the moment, except in emerging countries and Japan. In the latter, unlike the former, there is also quality. In Europe, prices are quite reasonable overall. You can find a bit of everything there, expensive, fairly cheap, and not always quality.
To find stocks I use screeners and sometimes I feel around a bit at random.
Hello again,
Thanks for your encouragement, it's always a pleasure. A few words about your post:
– LPP: well, we agree, this is the biggest organized collective theft in Switzerland, maybe even worse than the AVS. A real scandal. We have to take advantage of getting this s… out while we can.
– Banks: I understand your point of view very well. I know that many investors have become totally resistant to it. Nevertheless, I think that this is precisely why there are some good moves to be made. Contrary to what is happening elsewhere, bank valuations are still quite attractive, even for quality stocks.
– buy & hold: following a dividend strategy, this is indeed most of the time the correct approach. However, there are a few cases where selling can make sense. I have already written about this several times on the blog or in my e-book, and I will come back to this topic very soon in a new article.
– the Swiss market: it’s a quality market, with some nice little gems. Dividinde won’t say otherwise. However, I find it too expensive overall at the moment. Not dividinde, the market of course 😉
– pharma/watchmaking: I am obviously more of a fan of the former, because it can practically be considered a “basic necessity”. For me, I put this sector in the same category as food, beverages, clothing, retail, alcohol and tobacco. These are generally very good providers of sustainable dividends. Watchmaking is necessarily more cyclical.
Good luck and I look forward to reading you in the comments, or here.
Hello apprentice
Welcome among us. You will find plenty of answers to your questions in the Tutorial. Don't hesitate to also wander around the blog and the forum.
If you have any other more specific questions, don't hesitate.
Hi Jean-Luc,
sorry about your friend. He actually gave you good advice.
I no longer offer a paid subscription because I had to discontinue it following a change in the service provider from whom I took the basic raw data to put it through the grinder of my algorithm.
Today I continue to provide fundamental stock analyses fairly regularly, free of charge.
Classic dividend-paying stocks, such as the aristocrats you own in your portfolio, have unfortunately become overpriced. I still think that this strategy is one of the best for a (future) rentier. However, at the moment, it is not really advisable, at least for purchase. For this reason, I have hardly conducted any analyses of aristocrats for quite some time.
An annuitant should not sell these securities, because he is purely income-oriented and cannot afford to have cash. On the other hand, a future annuitant, like me, can see this period as an opportunity to lighten his portfolio of securities that have become really too expensive, to temporarily reallocate them to other less expensive assets, or even a little cash. If he can buy back new aristocrat shares later after a correction, he can still improve his return on purchase cost. For this reason, I have modified my portfolio considerably over the past two years, gradually leaving American aristocrats, to buy more diverse and much less well-known securities, particularly in Japan, China and a little in Europe.
I suggest you browse my site a bit, you will find in principle everything you need to know there. In relation to your questions, I am thinking of one article in particular:
