Portfolios: situation as of 01.07.2025

Money could make me independent. Then I could do whatever I wanted with my life. And what I wanted to do most in the world was work for myself. I didn't want others to boss me around. The idea of doing what I wanted every day was important to me.

I had an immense desire to get rich. Not because I wanted Ferraris - no, I wanted independence. I wanted it desperately.

When you read these two quotes, you might think they were written by any apostle of financial independence. However, they were not written by just anyone. They come from two legendary investors, billionaires, colleagues, and friends: Warren Buffett (1st quote) and Charlie Munger (2nd quote).

I came across it while reading "The snowball effect"on the beach with a glass of white wine, 40°C. I never thought of these two friends as budding rentiers. I saw them more as hyperactive businessmen. Reading W. Buffett's biography, I realize that he has a lot in common and similar human values to many people here. Warren is the double positive of TrumpThere's still good in America, phew.

I wouldn't go so far as to say that financial independence will make us all billionaires—far from it. This past month hasn't been the best for certain assets, indices, and strategies. But it's certain that this character trait (independence) pushes us toward autonomy and, therefore, a certain financial comfort.

Past month's performance (portfolios and benchmarks - in CHF)

THE Determinant portfolio ended June with a tiny gain of 0.02 % in CHF, beating the Swiss index and the 60/40 "Boglehead" benchmark portfolio. However, it was left behind by the US index and the global index (VT), which continued the rebound that began in May after several difficult months.

For his part, the PP 2.x, which is suffering quite strongly from the fall in gold, shows a drop of -1.39 %.

• Wallets :
  • Determinant portfolio : 0.02%
  • PP 2.x : -1.39%
• Benchmarks :
  • MSCI Switzerland: -2.4%
  • S&P 500: 1.39%
  • VT : 0.94%
  • 60/40 "Boglehead : -0.34%

Key portfolio strategies (past month - in CHF)

• Blue Chips: -0.75%
• Trading Auto Signal: -1.31%
• Long / Short: -0.20%
• Gold: -3.17%
• Swiss bonds: -1.9%
• Real estate Swiss: 0.14%
• Swiss shares: 1.46%
• Bitcoin & Gold: -3.58%

Blue chips, after several months of waiting in cash positions, are once again being invested. However, they are being pulled down by Swiss stocks.

The Trading Auto Signal continues to suffer, but less than last month. The market is quite turbulent at the moment due to Trump's boasting, which is making it difficult to find its bearings. Nevertheless, I'm quite confident about the future.

Micro-Caps are now combined with the Long-Short strategy. These two strategies are very similar in terms of selection criteria, risks, renewal frequency, and turnover. This past month, the strategy was dragged down by its short component (-7.8%) due to the rebound in US stocks.

Gold suffered enormously and dragged down the entire PF. We won't hold it too much against it because it has saved our butts several times in the past.

Swiss bonds continue their path in negative territory, but as already noted, this is a minority position.

Swiss real estate strategy started the month very poorly, before recovering strongly to end on a positive note.

The Swiss equity strategy achieved a very good result, taking into account the marked drop in its benchmark index.

Bitcoin is making a comeback in the PF. I abandoned it a few months ago because, despite its undeniable performance, it didn't allow me to improve the overall profitability of the portfolio at equal risk. After extensive testing, I managed to create a new strategy that allows me to benefit from its strength, without compromising overall volatility. To do this, I associated it with gold (a separate strategy from the other gold strategy) and I take into account a macroeconomic criterion to determine whether the position is invested or not. Unfortunately this time, gold dragged down the performance of this new strategy. But it's a little early to draw any conclusions, given that this strategy has only been active for 2 weeks.

Determinant portfolio (year-to-date - in CHF)

Since the beginning of this year, the determining portfolio shows a result of 0.02% in CHF. This is still worse than the MSCI Switzerland (6.24%), which is still resting on its gains from January and February, thanks to an exceptional rebound, following a disappointing year in 2024. But it is significantly better than the S&P 500, which shows a loss of -7.27% in CHF since the beginning of the year.

Determinant portfolio (since launch - in CHF)

The key portfolio in in its new configuration since October 2024shows the following results (in Swiss francs):

• Annualized performance (%): 6.83 (MSCI Switzerland: 1.85)
• Max Drawdown (%): -6.62 (MSCI Switzerland: -15.16)
• Standard deviation (%): 7.37 (MSCI Switzerland: 13.67)
• Sharpe ratio: 0.93 (MSCI Switzerland: 0.66)
• Correlation with MSCI Switzerland: 0.29

In conclusion, despite a mixed June and a rather flat 2025 so far, the Determinant Portfolio continues to prove its strength over time. The monthly results show a certain resilience, weathering market shocks and occasionally outperforming its local index, even if the context remains difficult. Over the year, it is clear that the portfolio does not follow the frenetic pace of certain indices during their rebound phases, but it also avoids major accidents – like the S&P 500 this year – which confirms the choice of prudent and diversified management. Since its launch in October 2024, the strategy deployed has made it possible to weather episodes of marked volatility without too much damage and to take advantage, where possible, of market opportunities.

Ultimately, performance remains decent over time, in a context that has never been so uncertain and polarized. The determining portfolio isn't there to break speed records, but to move forward with consistency and resilience. For that alone, and projected over a long-term horizon, it's already a victory for financial independence.